Crude Oil's final wave up!

A few times a year, the market presents to us a gift, a chance to hit a homerun. The trendlines align perfectly, forming the final pieces of a puzzle that was once vague, leaving no doubt that a masterpiece is in the making.

Crude Oil is now close to completing a $25 decline that started near $114.8 just 6 weeks ago. My target zone for the rebound is btw 89.2 and 89.6. (highlighted on the chart with a blue line). If my analysis is correct, we will hit the 'buy zone'  Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest. From there i expect a rebound to start that can see Oil move upto 107 as an initial target, and 110 &122 as more ambitious targets.

Stops are a must, and should be placed around 88.7.  But a break below 89 is enough to signal that something is wrong. A trader need not wait for his stop to hit. Once an important level is broken, wait for a bounce and exit with minimum loss.  It is also important to note that our buy zone is just below 90, a round and psychological number. You can imagine that many will have their stops there. A break of $90 and retailer investors will be running for the exits, which often happens just before a trend changes.  Successful speculation is anticipating the anticipations of others." - John Maynard Keynes

Needless to say, this play offers huge potential and can make you alot of money relatively quick. The hardest part of course, is the waiting. Very few will be able to take a position and then simply wait, and endure nerve wrecking volatility until their target is finally met. But the market rewards those who are patient, which unfortunately is a trait that few humans have.

-----updating this post quickly, Crude has managed a good rebound from the 91.5 level (about $2 higher than my estimated target). We are now at 94.3, having hit an intraday high of 95.07. I am not buying yet, as Im not convinced we have bottomed out. I choose to wait and risk missing a good play. An opportunity cost lost is always better than capital lost. Never chase a trade, let it come to you.

-------- June 24, and our target was hit, almost to the pip!!  The bounce off the 89.69 level today was quite powerful, adding to my confidence in this trade. That said, a stop must be placed. My stop would be around the 89 level, but once Crude moves past 93, stops should be raised gradually to protect the position and lock in gains (just in case). The hard part now, for those long crude is the waiting. Patience!!! will pay off.