Friday, June 3, 2011

Correction on Euro expected near 1.4685

As im posting this chart, tv pundits on Cnbc are mentioning that its all clear skies ahead for Greece, and that the outlook is once again bullish on the Euro. As a true contration, we need to ignore the 'news' and focus on the charts. The trick, as always, is waiting for the right moment to strike. A little too early, and u might get burnt just before the correction begins. As im typing this, the Euro is at 1.4630, and most shorts have capitulated.

----Just updating this post now, which was made 5 days ago..The Euro managed to get to 1.4693 before starting a decline of around 130 pips (down to 1.4563).

 It is said that traders need to trade what they see on the chart and not what they believe (opinion). Having an unbiased outlook on the market is one of the hardest tasks a speculator faces. People who are holding a position usually make the mistake of falling in love with the trade, which is dangerous because when the market turns on them, they will be slow to react. Although i was betting on a significant top here on the Euro, the decline today suggests otherwise.  From the look of things right now, i think the Euro might have some upside left, this is how im seeing it right now...



----revising this chart slightly, we got the sell off from the 1.4650 level. But it looks like its going a little lower than my previous estimate.


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