S&P 500, and the next leg up!!

The S&P lately has been impossible to trade. Large swings in one direction, then even larger swings the other way, burning anyone who tries to play counter trend. Yesterday, we saw a low of 1277, and a bounce to 1285. It has since started grinding lower again and is now back near 1281.  I think we'll see a final low either Thursday or Friday by the latest.  When that low is in, expect to see a powerful move upwards which will leave no doubt that the next leg up has begun. One of the most valuable lessons i have learnt in the markets is this, when i initiate a trade off a certain level and the move i expect to see off that level either 1) doesnt materialize, or 2) is weaker than anticipated, the right play was always to get out immediately or at the first bounce.

Which brings me back to this play on the SnP. We hit a low of 1277 intraday, and are currently sitting 3-4 points over that level. (overnight).  If this level is as strong as longs would like it to be, we wouldnt be hovering just barely over it --> which is a sign that somethings wrong.
I think the final low will be put in within the next 36 hours, and my bet is on the 1267 level. If we see a strong bounce from there, then chances are the next leg up has begun, which will take us past 1400 over the next two months.

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Just updating this post now, 1267 not looking like its going to hold....I have lowered the target to 1251, and this is the line in the sand for me. Any lower, and i will begin to have serious doubts about a bounce happening. Note: we are currently around the 1267 level as i  type this, but if this level was as strong as i had hoped, we should be higher. No need to wait for my stop to hit, i can exit here at cost, and wait for a better entry.