Plays for July 2014

Natgas:

 

 

  Crude Oil:

Gold:

Trade ideas : March 5 2014

Long EUR/NZD at 1.6320 : 

 

 

Long Crude Oil at 102.60 :

 

 

Stops and entry on the first trade are clear (blue and red lines). As for Crude oil, my target was near 107, which we didn't get to, so in my opinion the trend is still up. As long as its over 102, I will attempt to buy again in case 102.60 doesn't hold... 

 

Swing short, Crude oil

More on this later,,, but crude oil on 106.70 is a swing short... Huge potential..

 

long crude oil

A good risk reward play on Crude oil, would be to go long with respect to the recent low. A stop just below the red line should be sufficient, and entry can be near the 102 level.  Chances are we shoot higher soon. Will follow up on this later with another chart.

Oil long swing play

In my previous post, i was expecting oil to maybe do a final push higher before breaking down, we never got it.  As im posting this, we're around 94.24 and im thinking the worst of the move lower is done. Hoping for a quick drop down to 93.1 - 93.5 to complete this wave, and start a new wave higher that could in my opinion see new highs on oil.

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updating this play today Dec 21.....      Oil had a good rebound from around 92.6, and has hit a high of 99.20 approximately.  Im thinking we reverse from 99.80 down to 95 before a final wave higher ...I believe the trend on oil is up and chances are we see new highs in 2012.. for now, good idea to exit longs..


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Dec 23, and Oil has managed to get to 100.30 approx.. I am staying short, and fairly confident we will see a strong downmove today... Stop loss at 100.70, target around 95-96, more later.

Oil Update, December 2011

Quick update after a long break..... details soon.....keep an eye on oil....

Crude Oil, good risk reward short Opp

I believe today, the 11th Oct, should see Crude make it up to 87.12, where it will start a decent fall, and possibly even new lows well below 75.....Stops should be slightly higer than usual for swing plays, and thats what this is..A swing play down to 76, 71, or even 65/66..

Big Rally in Crude Oil, starting tommorow!!

i think a rally in crude oil spanning a few months is about to begin tommorow, around the 73 level..with a target of 90 or above...

Day trade, long Crude...

Crude Oil is clearly oversold today, as most commodities are crashing. Often, the best opportunities occur in such situations when a risk asset has moved too much in one direction..Timing is the key, a clear wave count, and of course, a stop loss.

---------------Updating this play on Crude... I think Crude oil, over the next few weeks will get slightly under 70, for a great buying opportunity..details later...

update - Crude Oil, long opportunity.

----------------------This is a quick update on the long Oil play posted today morning..

Expecting a decent bounce, and possible a trend change on Oil

------------------Ok, its been tricky, with the market crashing....Most stops on any plays would have got hit, but from 75.80 (a solid Fibo level) we should see a major bounce, if not a complete trend reversal..

Oil Update, August 3

Back to blogging, after a small break.. Markets have been falling apart lately, with volatility at the highest level i've seen in months..I will start my updates with the Crude Oil chart. I believe starting tommorow, we will see the beginning of a new leg up...Im betting on the 91.20 level seen today to hold the decline. The plan is to place a stop just below the 91.00 and go long, aiming for over $100..

Oil, 8 Hour chart



Crude Oil Update

After hitting our target of 89.6 exactly!, Crude Oil has begun its first wave up.. Im expecting a correction at the 96.02 level, but any dips to around the 91.5 - 92.50 level should be bought in my opinion, with a hard stop at 90.5.

Crude Oil, ready to reverse

Crude Oil has tested the 90 level three times so far, and failed to break to the downside. This is a clear message that this level is well supported. A triple bottom is a well recognized bottoming pattern. Crude oil is very volatile, but can be equally rewarding should you manage to catch a good move. As im typing this, we are on the verge of breaking out, starting 'in my opinion', the final move higher. On June 19, this level was identified as a very high probability reversal point.

Big Market sell off....Buying all the plays

Today we saw a massive sell off, with the Euro crashing over 330 pips, the SnP dropping close to 2%, Gold & Silver seeing and 2% and 4% drops respectively, and Crude Oil down over 5.5% at one point.

Today we saw panic selling. It is on these days that one has to take swing positions, and wait till sentiment reaches the other extreme to liquidate.. The 'News' on Crude oil, i.e: the reason being given for the drop is being attributed to the International Energy Agency releasing 60 million barrels of oil to make up for a loss in Libyan Oil exports. 

Of course, proper traders know that this is rubbish. Oil was going to hit its target of $ 89.6 one way or another, and it was posted here just a few days ago..Click on this link, then see the chart.

Another trade mentioned, regarding the GBP/CHF play has reached maturity. I believe people who buy this cross, and allow it room to breath (100 pip stop) can see big gains in the weeks ahead. The Target in the post was 1.3260, but i think it is buyable right here at 1.3360, with a target of no less than 1,000 pips.

The Euro, i mentioned last week that it had bottomed out at 1.4072, and im sticking with that view . I am still very much in favour of going long the Euro, and believe 1.4112-1.4140 should be enough to hold this move, and see it reverse. The bigger picture 'technically on the Euro', is beginning to show a triangle, which is usually a continuation pattern. If that is the case, expect the Euro to break 1.5 in the next month or so.

Crude Oil's final wave up!

A few times a year, the market presents to us a gift, a chance to hit a homerun. The trendlines align perfectly, forming the final pieces of a puzzle that was once vague, leaving no doubt that a masterpiece is in the making.

Crude Oil is now close to completing a $25 decline that started near $114.8 just 6 weeks ago. My target zone for the rebound is btw 89.2 and 89.6. (highlighted on the chart with a blue line). If my analysis is correct, we will hit the 'buy zone'  Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest. From there i expect a rebound to start that can see Oil move upto 107 as an initial target, and 110 &122 as more ambitious targets.

Stops are a must, and should be placed around 88.7.  But a break below 89 is enough to signal that something is wrong. A trader need not wait for his stop to hit. Once an important level is broken, wait for a bounce and exit with minimum loss.  It is also important to note that our buy zone is just below 90, a round and psychological number. You can imagine that many will have their stops there. A break of $90 and retailer investors will be running for the exits, which often happens just before a trend changes.  Successful speculation is anticipating the anticipations of others." - John Maynard Keynes

Needless to say, this play offers huge potential and can make you alot of money relatively quick. The hardest part of course, is the waiting. Very few will be able to take a position and then simply wait, and endure nerve wrecking volatility until their target is finally met. But the market rewards those who are patient, which unfortunately is a trait that few humans have.

-----updating this post quickly, Crude has managed a good rebound from the 91.5 level (about $2 higher than my estimated target). We are now at 94.3, having hit an intraday high of 95.07. I am not buying yet, as Im not convinced we have bottomed out. I choose to wait and risk missing a good play. An opportunity cost lost is always better than capital lost. Never chase a trade, let it come to you.

-------- June 24, and our target was hit, almost to the pip!!  The bounce off the 89.69 level today was quite powerful, adding to my confidence in this trade. That said, a stop must be placed. My stop would be around the 89 level, but once Crude moves past 93, stops should be raised gradually to protect the position and lock in gains (just in case). The hard part now, for those long crude is the waiting. Patience!!! will pay off.

Expected road map for Crude Oil, June 1 2011

This is my best guess at the moment. For now, still looking to buy the dips with the view that crude oil is heading back higher to break the highs of $114 seen last month..

----Updating now the chart above...Not exactly as i had drawn out, but pretty close.

update - Crude Oil

Crude Oil has bottomed clearly, and the play now is to buy the dips...Expecting a major break out early next week.. Please see this chart for an update on the last call for a dip and bounce..

Here's the link for that call...

http://trendfighter.blogspot.com/2011/05/update-on-crude.html

update on crude

Expected path of Crude Oil over next 48 hrs..

Crude Oil Target

As long as the 95 level holds, i believe we will see one final wave higher to target 123.20 within the next few weeks... Of course, if the 95 level is breached, all bets are off, and chances are we head much lower ( around 70)..