Thursday, June 9, 2011

Trade of the year


This is the weekly chart of the GBP/CHF currency pair. This cross is in an advanced stage of a bear market, and the fall lately has been parabolic to the downside, much like silver was on its way to 50 recently, only to the downside. The play obviously is to go long, and immediately the famous market cliche comes to mind as i say this, 'never catch a falling knife'.

The potential however for a monster bounce at these extreme oversold levels is too tempting. A small position can be established near the level mentioned, with a stop 50-70 pips lower. If the currency pair reverses to the upside, and starts showing profit, one can add to his winning position, while protecting the first position with a stop at BE (breakeven price), keeping risk of loss low, and magnifyinig the profit potential.

 Easier said than done though, the trick to building a big position lies in knowing where to place the stops. I see huge potential in this play, and think this is one of the best opportunities of the year. I might be getting a little ahead of myself at the moment, as we might never get that low (1.3264), still about 500 pips away..But its important to keep the idea in mind in order to move fast if the opportunity arises within the next month or so..

----------------------------June 24, and updating this post. At time of posting, this cross was at 1.3750 approx.. Today, almost 2 weeks later ,we hit 1.3356 and i believe the time to buy is Now !  Massive potential on this one.


-----------------June 27, and the target of 1.3264, given on June 9 was hit almost to the pip. Today morning we saw 1.3274, and a sharp rebound immediately followed from that level.
3 days ago i thought maybe we would not come down this far, so i recommeded buying at 1.3360.. A clear example of how impatience can cost you money in the markets...Patience in entering and exiting trades is the the difference between being good or great...


8 hr chart showing the sharp rebound from the 1.3274 level, mentioned almost to the pip on June 9.

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