Trades - Aug 14, 2014

The first chart is for the S&P 500, I am short at 1950,  and I think we will sell off the next few days, for possibly new lows. 

 

This is the Natural Gas chart, I have been long for a while, and today it erased almost 3 weeks worth of gains in 2 hrs!!  the market can be extremely frustrating, and this is the most painful trade in the market right now, I think only the very patient will reap the rewards when it finally moves higher.

The last chart is for the GBP/USD, which I believe has topped near 1.72.  I am playing a bounce upto the 1.69-1.70 region, where I will try to exit, and open a small short position.

Plays for July 2014

Natgas:

 

 

  Crude Oil:

Gold:

Great swing trade ideas for June 2014

Short S & P 500:

 

Long GOLD:

 



trade ideas May 20th

Market has been very choppy this week, been struggling to find some good plays but a couple of ideas are starting to look good,

The first is the Kiwi, big support at 0.8515, but if it gets there I will not want to be long... The play is to be long at 0.8560 and (0.8545 if need be) and stop loss at 08520

 

 

The second is long EUR/JPY:

 

 

The reasoning is simple, the USD/JPY has a very clear support at 100.80 which WILL probably be broken, but when all longs are out of the market and only shorts remain, im guessing we rally again.. of course, this is risky, so stops are essential in case it goes into freefall, but this is what I think will happen:

 

buying the Euro crash on Friday night, nice setup

I haven't been trading the Euro much lately, but this move today caught my eye. When I daytrade, I look for moves that have gone too much in one direction. I am not a Euro bull or bear, i make some pips and im out.  On the Euro topic, im not convinced this is the start of a more severe bear move like some are saying.  Maybe im wrong, but for now im playing the bounce. Im already long at 1.3760 and im adding at 1.3743, a level i believe should hold, otherwise,  im bailing out under 1.3730.

 

 

 

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Update:  this trade was a disaster. A traders worst nightmare is to have a position drift lower against him, while he continuously moves his stop... This move in the Euro completely caught me off guard, and what saddens me is that I was never convinced, I just went long due to the volatility and expectation of a quick bounce. Nevertheless, I have added at 1.36 and placed a hard stop at 1.3570.  I believe we should start heading higher from here, a bounce is long overdue.

 

 

Good shorting opportunity soon (NZD/USD)

Although I am expecting this pair to top somewhere over 0.88,  for tomorrow I believe there is a good shorting opportunity at 0.8705.  More on this later, but this does look very promising so wanted to post before I forgot.. here's the chart:

 

 

 

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Update 1 : This trade I pointed out to yesterday didn't turn out too well.  I shorted at .08705 as planned, and almost immediately, it jumped 70 pips higher.. I added higher and got out with a small profit after midnight, only to watch it drift lower.

 

Everytime you think a move is definitely over, it seems to go on just that little bit further to trick you into closing a position.  I am preferring a different approach with using stops. Scale in a position with multiple entries, (in a zone you think will hold) and place a stop on all entries at a point where you are convinced the trade idea is wrong. Its a risker strategy, but with volatile markets, it higher your odds to succeed..

 

I am planning on going long the Nzd/Usd  (small position) close to 0.8840...here is the chart, and a related gbp/nzd entry as well.

 

 

first is nzd/usd....then the gbp/nzd

 

 

 

Waiting to short Gold at 1314

Gold on Friday rallied almost 30$ on Friday, tilting the odds towards the bullish view that we go higher above 1400, rather than breaking 1200 in the coming few months. A bottoming process seems to be taking place, and with Fridays move, it looks like the low at 1268 will hold, for a much bigger move to the upside.

For today, I am going counter-trend , a small short line at 1314, hoping to reverse long when and if it retraces lower.

 

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 Update 1 :  We got a small retrace from 1314-1315 today, but it was slow and corrective in nature, hinting at one last move up tomorrow, I think to around the 1320-1321 level.  There is a chance it falls from here overnight, a good chance, but ive decided not to risk it, so ive covered my shorts at 1309, and im hoping to reload soon from a higher price.  

 

 

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Update 2:  Just posting the follow up chart, I am sticking to strategy and building a long position around 1285-1288.. I highly doubt 1275 will be breached, so I will add if I see it lower, but exit all at 1277..

 

 

 

I think Gold is finally ready to rally @ 1277

I was too early at 1307, and have paid a price for not using a stop. We are now at 1277, and I cant tell you what a tiring and frustrating couple of days its been. I want to save it here in this post so I can remember later about the pain this trade caused me.

Anyways, lessons learnt hopefully, never be too sure of something. I've doubled down at the low near 1278, and I hope to exit at breakeven if it rallies soon. Then re-enter at a pullback for the ride higher.

Adding to losers is known to be a bad strategy. For this trade, I've placed stops on the full amount under the last recent low 1277.  At some point, you have to draw the line and say enough. My give up point is 1273.

Here's the chart, and what I expect next....The nature of the drop suggests this low holds for a move over 1400...

 

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Got the move I was looking for, and managed to exit at breakeven. Although the bounce was relatively modest, I will stay on the sidelines for now, and let the market show its cards..

A move below 1295 and there is a good chance we see one more low, a break of 1320 and the odds favour more upside..

 

 

Next new low on GBP/USD should start its rally

Im not putting too much on this trade but one I definitely intend to take. Waiting for a new low on the British Pound somewhere near 1.6430 to take a long position..

 

 

Gold at a turning point..

 

I stated in the previous Gold posts that I was expecting the rally to top out near the 1380's, and the move finished at 1392..  The drop was sudden with out any good retracements making it hard for bears to join , so I have been scalping a few here and there.. The last few hours the selling intensified and we dropped from 1325 to 1307 in the space of an hour or two.. In my opinion this was a sign that this wave from 1392 has been completed.  I scaled in a few longs near the low building a good position for tomorrow, my average is 1310. Fingers crossed for tomorrow.

 

Trade ideas : March 5 2014

Long EUR/NZD at 1.6320 : 

 

 

Long Crude Oil at 102.60 :

 

 

Stops and entry on the first trade are clear (blue and red lines). As for Crude oil, my target was near 107, which we didn't get to, so in my opinion the trend is still up. As long as its over 102, I will attempt to buy again in case 102.60 doesn't hold... 

 

Intraday short - GOLD 1347.5

In my gold updates, my last view was to enter short Gold near 1343.. It has reached this level, and stalled there, which usually means, there's a little more upside left.. I have another order to sell at 1347.5... Lets see how this turns out later in the day..

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Update:  Out of this trade at breakeven...  It got to 1350, which spooked me.. Waited for a pullback and got out.. It might have put in the high of the day, and Im expecting some consolidation in the 1335-1345 range for a few days before breaking higher later this week.. will try another small short entry if we get near the highs again today..

 

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Update : Gold has made yet another new high of the day at 1354,  I was short at 1347, so I sold again at 1352 and now almost breakeven at 1350 (current price)..  I am getting that feeling that I am 'very wrong on this', so im gonna exit yet again and just stay on the sidelines for now.. I think everyone is short and stuck in positions after todays action, and the market will probably punish the shorts further tomorrow with yet another huge unexpected move to the upside to set up the high of this swing from 1178..   Expected target 1384.

 

 

 

 

Swing short, Crude oil

More on this later,,, but crude oil on 106.70 is a swing short... Huge potential..

 

Short Euro - FEB 28

I usually don't like to go against a trend on its third attempt to break a level, but im giving it a shot here against the Euro.. Im short at 1.3815 and 1.3820..

 

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Update: I just closed this trade for just over 50 pips.. the markets are very volatile on this Monday morning.. 

 

 

                                         

Natural Gas

I haven't traded Nat Gas in over 2 years, but the recent madness in volatility got me interested in having a slice of the action.. I will upload 2 charts, the first to remember the chart 'look' at the time of trade, and the second for a close up...I am trying a long with a stop at the red line.. Low risk, high reward.. Will update this post in a few days..

After hitting 6.5, we saw a 30% drop in a few days!!

 

Close up:

 

 

 

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Update :

 

Although it appeared yesterday like this was a bad idea, I stuck with it and now its paying off, I might have even gotten the low....will update this again in a few days, this could be the beginning of a good bounce..

 

 

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Update II:  I closed too early at 4.6, and Natgas keeps zooming higher.  The fear of losing your profits, is the main reason small traders cant hold on for the much bigger gains.. Then later when they decide to hold on for longer, they watch their profits evaporate completely. There is no right or wrong, its a case by case situation. In this certain trade,  i expected a big move as mentioned earlier, and i should have held on like planned, but when i saw my profit, i thought id be smart, & re-buy lower, but it never came.. Note to self : stick to the plan.