Swing short in motion

                                                                              Euro:

 (update) -----As im writing this, the Euro is at 1.2955.. just 30 pips over my target, but enough for me to know im wrong. Ive adjusted my account, and will wait for 1.2990 should we see it..

   

Gold:

----------------Gold, still waiting for a clear break below 1640..

S&P:

------------SnP stronger than i thought, but i believe will correct tommorow along with other risk classes..

S&P 500 update...

SnP, Long Play

Long play opportunity on the SnP..Stops should be place about 4-5 pts below 1239, and buy zone zone close to the 1244...

SnP - the final hurdle...

In my last SnP update, i was expecting 1188 to hold the upside, but we broke through it and hit a high of  1197..Although price now at 1192 is still very close, i believe the right move is to take a small loss, and move on...This is my next target, 1217, and im fairly confident this time we will not break through....Stop should be near 1225-1230....

S&P 500. Potential bottom tommorow @ 1070

Expecting a temporary bottom to form tommorow on the S&P..

-------------------------------Updating this post made last week....i think we're about to reach the end of a wave tommorow around 1188-1189.... i belive the next direction will be down.  I think there's a possibility we make a new low, but if we do, it will be the final one before a massive wave higher....If we dont make the new low at 1033, correct, then make new highs above 1190, then chances are we've seen the worst of it...will let the charts tell us what to do when the time comes. For now, the play is to go short...(with a stop as usual, a couple of points higher)

S&P has bottomed out for now....

After Fridays panic, and the powerful bounce that followed taking the S&P to 1216 from 1168, it seemed that a temporary bottom had formed. However, on Monday the gains evaporated and a new low was seen at 1118. Overnight, the market continued to tank late after the market closed, finally settling at the 1080 level. I dont think anyone could have imagined such a crash, but im sure some were able to sense the turning point around 1080..

---------------------------------Updating this post today August 26.. Im still not convinced we've seen the worst of it.. I think we could get down to 1030-1032 before a sustained move higher...

Expected Path on S&P

This is what i expect to happen on the S&P over the next few days...Of course, nothing in the market is ever certain, and stops are always a must..!!

July 1, move stronger than expected, adjusting my count..

S&P 500, and the next leg up!!

The S&P lately has been impossible to trade. Large swings in one direction, then even larger swings the other way, burning anyone who tries to play counter trend. Yesterday, we saw a low of 1277, and a bounce to 1285. It has since started grinding lower again and is now back near 1281.  I think we'll see a final low either Thursday or Friday by the latest.  When that low is in, expect to see a powerful move upwards which will leave no doubt that the next leg up has begun. One of the most valuable lessons i have learnt in the markets is this, when i initiate a trade off a certain level and the move i expect to see off that level either 1) doesnt materialize, or 2) is weaker than anticipated, the right play was always to get out immediately or at the first bounce.

Which brings me back to this play on the SnP. We hit a low of 1277 intraday, and are currently sitting 3-4 points over that level. (overnight).  If this level is as strong as longs would like it to be, we wouldnt be hovering just barely over it --> which is a sign that somethings wrong.
I think the final low will be put in within the next 36 hours, and my bet is on the 1267 level. If we see a strong bounce from there, then chances are the next leg up has begun, which will take us past 1400 over the next two months.

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Just updating this post now, 1267 not looking like its going to hold....I have lowered the target to 1251, and this is the line in the sand for me. Any lower, and i will begin to have serious doubts about a bounce happening. Note: we are currently around the 1267 level as i  type this, but if this level was as strong as i had hoped, we should be higher. No need to wait for my stop to hit, i can exit here at cost, and wait for a better entry.

S&P-500 details soon

Market trickery

Usually the market will do the exact opposite of what we think it should do in order to confuse us, and just when we begin to doubt ourselves, and start to lose hope (often entering a trade out of impatience), the market then goes and does exactly what we originally thought it should do..One of my first posts on this blog, for the Euro and the S&P 500 had targets of 1.3960 and 1310 respectively.  I will repost the charts for ease of reference..

It took its time, but surely, the targets were hit and were met with strong reversals.. I will let the charts do the talking. A picture is worth a thousand words..

Expected path for the S&P 500

Expecting a sharp drop on the S&P down to the 1310 level, where we can expect the end of the ABC correction as shown on the chart.. Of course, there is always a chance, the drop just goes into free fall, or maybe even not reach the target mentioned (bear in mind, as of this writing, we're still approx 22 pts away), yet should we get there, a prepared trader can enter with a stop loss just 3-4 pts below..

Trading, unlike most professions is an art.. and even if one plans on entering on  a specified level, say 1310, its always better to wait and see if the market at least shows some support there...sometimes, an entry and a stop are placed, and the market just drops like a stone, hitting both orders before you have time to react...Also, as a first entry, a small order is advised..Should the market hold, more can be added when the first position shows a profit...