euro-details soon

S&P-500 details soon

Market trickery

Usually the market will do the exact opposite of what we think it should do in order to confuse us, and just when we begin to doubt ourselves, and start to lose hope (often entering a trade out of impatience), the market then goes and does exactly what we originally thought it should do..One of my first posts on this blog, for the Euro and the S&P 500 had targets of 1.3960 and 1310 respectively.  I will repost the charts for ease of reference..

It took its time, but surely, the targets were hit and were met with strong reversals.. I will let the charts do the talking. A picture is worth a thousand words..

Silver play, 26th of May. Main trend still up

Silver got a little extended yesterday, and i was anticipating a pull back from the 38.5 level.. The move up from the lows so far looks like an ABC, rather than a five wave impulse, so the target (end of wave C) was calculated by multiplying the B wave by 1.618 (main Fibonacci retracement level).

silver update, a move to 40 very soon..


Here, we see that silver held the 32.3 (major bottom) area well, and is right at resistance...In my opinion, Silver is a strong buy, with expected strong moves upto the 40 level within the next 10 days or less...

Here is my last silver update..

update - Crude Oil

Crude Oil has bottomed clearly, and the play now is to buy the dips...Expecting a major break out early next week.. Please see this chart for an update on the last call for a dip and bounce..

Here's the link for that call...

http://trendfighter.blogspot.com/2011/05/update-on-crude.html

Euro update

They say trading is alot like surfing...with the waves of the market being compared to the waves of the ocean.. sometimes, the waves are very easy to see, and if you follow my last Euro updates, you will see what i mean... The correction down from 1.4350, and the rebound from 1.4150 were textbook plays.. of course, the market isnt always so generous, and 'clear', and usually we can only be 100% sure of a wave count only after it is completed..All we can do therefore, is find the best set up, be patient, disciplined and true to ourselves to follow the plan till the end....That means waiting for your targets, and cutting your losses short.. The hardest part about the markets in my opinion is the 'waiting' part.. many men can be right about a direction of an asset, but very few will be able to sit it out.. More on this later..

Bounce at the 1.4150 line and i believe we head up from here.. Most retail traders will be shaken out from the volatility, sitting on the edge of your seat, watching each tick up and down makes it a difficult task, but the trick is in putting your stop in, and accepting that you will (1) get your stop hit. or  (2) get your target.

Of course, taking some profit halfway helps cool the nerves and keep the account healthy and growing..Unless of course, you're sure, lol, and in that case its ok to be greedy : )

Euro Update

The Euro bottomed a little over my target in my initial post, but im happy to see my wave count was quite accurate, and we saw the turn after the end of the 5th of wave 5. 

I think the move from the lows so far has been an ABC correction, with a possible target of 1.4354..

Personally, i dont think we've seen the highs on the Euro yet, but its not enough to have an opinion and a position in the market.. I think its important to know in what stage a correction (or rally) is, and plan ur trades and stops accordingly..

Its always good to have a risk/return favourable set up. Risking 20 pips to gain 80, for example...which is precisely why we do what we do, and stare at charts for hours...Without tilting the odds into our favour, this becomes nothing more than a game at a casino..

update on crude

Expected path of Crude Oil over next 48 hrs..

Crude Short, intraday

Crude has held the 95 level well, after three attempts...A move to 120 is in play.  Am trying an intraday short at 99.05, with a 20 pip stop.. target around 97.

Silver

This is a quick estimate of where silver can bounce from tommorow, should we see some selling early on..
I would be more comfortable buying should the Euro for example having already reached its target of 1.396... Risk assets tend to hit important levels simultaneously.. I believe the bottom at 32.3 is a very important one, and will hold for weeks to come.. I expect a retest of the highs from here, as a minimum, and a take of 55-60 as a maximum target. Will be buying the dips in silver, with respect to the low (32.3).. should that level be taken, all bets are off..

Expected path for the S&P 500

Expecting a sharp drop on the S&P down to the 1310 level, where we can expect the end of the ABC correction as shown on the chart.. Of course, there is always a chance, the drop just goes into free fall, or maybe even not reach the target mentioned (bear in mind, as of this writing, we're still approx 22 pts away), yet should we get there, a prepared trader can enter with a stop loss just 3-4 pts below..

Trading, unlike most professions is an art.. and even if one plans on entering on  a specified level, say 1310, its always better to wait and see if the market at least shows some support there...sometimes, an entry and a stop are placed, and the market just drops like a stone, hitting both orders before you have time to react...Also, as a first entry, a small order is advised..Should the market hold, more can be added when the first position shows a profit...

Crude Oil Target

As long as the 95 level holds, i believe we will see one final wave higher to target 123.20 within the next few weeks... Of course, if the 95 level is breached, all bets are off, and chances are we head much lower ( around 70)..

Euro Bounce

I believe on Monday, we will hit the target of 1.3960, and hover slightly over for the next few hours.. It will continue to look weak,and make small advances as most weak longs exit...I expect to see a strong breakout later in the week, and even new highs a little over 1.51 within the next month or so...

German Dax

Still some room to run on the upside, but when the time comes, the decline will be intense...